The hottest nickel price maintains a strong patter

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Nickel price maintains a strong pattern

on the one hand, refined nickel production raw materials are insufficient, and the global marginal supply increment is limited. On the other hand, the increase in stainless steel output led to an increase in nickel demand, and inventories continued to decline. Overall, nickel prices will run strongly in the future

after the Russian nickel sanctions, the market gradually returned to calm, and the nickel price also fell from a high level. The recent impact of environmental protection on the supply of nickel pig iron, the reduction of stainless steel production and falsification of certificates, the accelerated removal of refined nickel inventory, and the strong upward trend of nickel price, hitting a new high since its listing. As for the follow-up trend, although Wuxi issued a letter of consultation on nickel beans as a deliverable brand, and Xinjiang Xinxin nickel plate added in the previous period as a deliverable brand, it cannot reverse the continuous decline in inventory, and it is expected that the nickel price will maintain a strong operation

the marginal supply increment of refined nickel is limited

since this year, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the market is quite optimistic about the application and popularization of high nickel ternary materials in the future, driving the increase in demand for nickel sulfate, which has attracted the attention of nickel industry giants and laid out nickel sulfate in succession. The main path is to use intermediate products to produce nickel sulfate. Under the current situation that the new potential of nickel sulfide resources is insufficient and the output of nickel cobalt hydroxide, an intermediate product of laterite nickel hydrometallurgy, is limited, the intermediate 2 Large diameter extensometer right angle grip attachment spring too hard products are consumed by nickel sulfate, refined nickel production raw materials are insufficient, and the global marginal supply increment is limited

although domestic Jinchuan's profits improved and increased production, some enterprises in production last year had little output this year, and the overall refined nickel output fell by 7%, and the refined nickel import fell by 26% due to the long-term closure of the import window this year. On the whole, the domestic refined nickel supply decreased significantly this year

environmental protection policy pressure

the general trend of loose laterite nickel ore has not changed, but the domestic nickel pig iron output is limited by the capacity bottleneck and the dual inhibition of environmental protection, and the output is not significantly large-scale, increasing year-on-year and decreasing month on month. According to statistics, in the first four months of this year, the domestic output of nickel pig iron was 150000 metal tons, an increase of 16% year-on-year. However, when the profit level was better than the end of last year, the monthly output level was significantly lower than the end of last year, with a decline of 7.5%

in May and June, environmental protection continued to affect the output of nickel pig iron. The Shanghai Cooperation summit affected the production of some nickel pig iron enterprises in Linyi, Shandong. The environmental protection supervision team settled in Inner Mongolia. Except for twoorthree enterprises that were not affected temporarily, the rest of nickel pig iron enterprises have been suspended

for the return flow of Indonesian nickel pig iron, due to the consumption of 2million tons of 300 series nickel pig iron put into production in Qingshan, Indonesia, the return flow has fallen sharply, and it is expected that the subsequent return flow to China will be limited

stainless steel market performance is stable

according to institutional statistics, China's stainless steel crude steel production in January this year increased by about 5.4% year-on-year, of which the 300 series crude steel production growth rate was only 3.5%, mainly due to the impact of the return of 300 series stainless steel in Qingshan, Indonesia. The profitability pressure of steel mills under high cost and high inventory increased sharply, resulting in an overall decline in capacity utilization

although we expect that the high-cost steel plant will be overhauled after April, in fact, only Jiuquan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. will have overhauled in May, and the steel plant will alleviate the pressure on its profitability by reducing the price of raw materials. In addition, the overseas anti-dumping of Chinese stainless steel has led to the reduction of 300 series reflux in Qingshan, Indonesia. Superimposed on the recent Dainan medium frequency furnace incident, the price of stainless steel has rebounded and the profits of steel mills have continued to improve

in terms of inventory, as of May 10, the total inventory of 300 Series in Wuxi and Foshan was about 230000 tons, and the pressing plate used for compaction and inspection continued to be removed, down about 5% month on month. At present, the boom cycle of the industrial chain is resurgent, followed by the improvement of domestic stainless steel capacity utilization. The growth of stainless steel output drives the increase of nickel demand

the short-term growth rate of domestic primary nickel supply is limited, while stainless steel paper mills only have a shortage of raw materials, and the output can remain stable. The supply and demand gap needs to be filled by imported refined nickel, but the long-term import window closure has limited the recovery of import volume, and domestic refined nickel continues to destock, leading to the expected rise of warehouse squeeze under low inventory. According to our research on the inventory in the bonded area, the refined nickel inventory was about 60000 tons at the end of May, and the ratio will probably be repaired in the future. The inventory in the bonded area will flow into China, easing the tension of refined nickel

as for the problem of new delivery products, we believe that the short term will alleviate the expectation that the number of nickel plates that can be delivered in the previous period is insufficient to a certain extent. However, in the long run, the continuous decline of inventory cannot be solved from the root. It is expected that nickel prices will remain strong for some time in the future. The new cooperation is generated in the process of solving these problems: "we need to focus on the carbon fiber grade pattern used by cars, but we need to pay attention to the impact of changes in import windows on prices

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