The hottest nickel price remained high and oscilla

  • Detail

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, Sino US trade frictions escalated, and non-ferrous metals and crude oil in the international market suddenly fell. After the festival, by observing the performance of all varieties of non-ferrous metal plates, the nickel price trend was anti decline, with a decline of only 2.36%. When the market panic returned to rationality, nickel prices returned to the rebound pattern. Although the high position risk in the early stage is temporarily relieved, the structural shortage of nickel market will still bring the risk of position squeeze of long-term contracts. On the one hand, the decline of explicit inventory and the continuous disturbance of environmental factors will support the nickel price, and the long bull of nickel price will only take a step. On the other hand, the current game of long and short factors is intensifying, and the pressure on the front line above the nickel price of 120000 yuan/ton is large. Until there is no stronger positive stimulus, the nickel price will remain high

the logic of long-term bull taking remains unchanged

although the nickel price was adjusted in advance due to the long-term profit flight in the early stage, the nickel market is basically oriented for the good. The suppression of short-term macro factors cannot change the long-term bull pattern of nickel price, and the callback instead brings better entry opportunities. After trump exempted 42 companies applicable to the following experiments from import tariffs on steel and aluminum, the market's concerns about trade frictions began to weaken. At present, the main contradiction of nickel price is concentrated in the trade war and the temporary suppression of the price by the phased accumulation of stainless steel. The basic logic of long-term strengthening of nickel price has not changed

first of all, the structural shortage of nickel city is still severe. Under the expectation of high premium of nickel sulfate and good demand for new energy vehicles, nickel enterprises have switched to nickel sulfate and squeezed the output of electrolytic nickel. With the continuous decline of domestic nickel explicit inventory and the firm closure of the import window, the risk of nickel long-term contract squeeze will continue to reappear

secondly, environmental protection is still the main line of the government's work this year. Until there is no substantial improvement in pollution control, the implementation of environmental protection will only be strengthened and will not be lax, including the major nickel iron production areas in Inner Mongolia and Shandong. In this round of nickel price rise, the increase of high nickel iron is far lower than expected. With the gradual resumption of production of stainless steel enterprises, the demand for replenishment of raw materials in the downstream will boost the nickel price

short term disturbance factors increase

although the strong pattern of nickel price remains unchanged, there is heavy pressure on the front line of 120000 yuan/ton above. In mid May, along with the rumors of steel plant maintenance under the strict crackdown on environmental protection, stainless steel broke away from the nickel price and took the lead in a wave of rising market, followed by a sharp rise in nickel price stimulated by the benefits of stainless steel. The current logic of stainless steel and nickel prices rising together has been broken, and stainless steel fell earlier than nickel prices. Take 304 as an example, hot rolling alone fell by 600-700 yuan/ton compared with that before the holiday, almost running into the foam of rising prices in the early stage. With the fall of stainless steel prices, the steel plants delivered goods in a centralized manner last week, and the social inventory of stainless steel also increased synchronously, and the process of destocking was temporarily interrupted

as of early June, the total inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 7.6% to 324000 tons, which surprised the market. However, this accumulation still needs to be tested. There may be two possibilities for nickel price due to inventory: if stainless steel is falsified, then the subsequent accumulation phenomenon will aggravate the price pressure of stainless steel, and nickel price is difficult to survive alone. Second, if the trend of stainless steel destocking remains unchanged, the steel price can remain strong, thus supporting the high oscillation of nickel price. It is worth noting that there are many factors that affect the nickel price. Even if the price of stainless steel is low, it will not necessarily drag down the nickel price. The strength of high nickel iron under environmental protection factors will also support the strengthening of nickel price

to sum up, there is good fundamental support for the rise of nickel price, and the price is still in the upward channel. Short term trade frictions and the phased accumulation of stainless steel have put pressure on nickel prices. However, nickel prices have been rising. Domestic engineering material suppliers are more assured in terms of cost and delivery time. Structural shortage and new consumer demand in nickel city are still the key to supporting the strengthening of prices. The current correction brings great opportunities to go long. Many admission orders in the early stage can continue to be held. Pay attention to the pressure of 120000 yuan/ton above Shanghai nickel 1809

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI