There is still room for the scale of the hottest c

2022-08-21
  • Detail

Construction machinery: there is still space in the scale, and the growth rate gradually drops.

construction machinery: there is still space in the scale, and the growth rate gradually drops.

China Construction machinery information

Guide: for the construction machinery sector, the current market concerns are mainly two: in the long run, China's fixed asset investment slows down, which is bound to affect the growth rate of the entire sector; In the short term, the accounts receivable and financial expenses of listed construction machinery companies have increased rapidly and hidden risks. In fact, the market does not understand this industry

for the construction machinery sector, the current market concerns are mainly two: in the long run, China's fixed asset investment slows down, which is bound to affect the growth rate of the entire sector; In the short term, the accounts receivable and financial expenses of listed construction machinery companies have increased rapidly and hidden risks

"the operator can choose a certain sample according to the sequence of samples transmitted by the superior computer (or by manual intervention). In fact, the market does not understand this industry. The construction machinery sector, especially the companies that have formed an oligopoly, will not lack space in the future." The investment director of one of the top five fund companies told us that caterpillar could be used as a comparative model to study domestic listed construction machinery companies

as far as this year is concerned, although the construction machinery sector as a whole has fallen sharply, and the perspective of securities companies is also more cautious, the unexpected growth of concrete machinery has also brought some unexpected things to the market

construction machinery is not short of space

"domestically, the total market value of construction machinery is only 19.5 billion yuan, while the total sales revenue of machinery giant caterpillar in 2011 reached US $60.1 billion." The director of listed investment said

over the past decade, the continuous high growth of fixed asset investment has made the construction machinery industry, and the 4trillion stimulus has brought the industry to its peak. Market participants generally doubt that without strong stimulus, the construction machinery industry may no longer be prosperous. This is indeed something to worry about, but when the whole market is depressed, the pessimism will be infinitely amplified

however, the global machinery giant caterpillar is very optimistic about China and is actively building factories in China. The company believes that China's urbanization determines that more roads, airports and other infrastructure will still need to be built by 2025. Although the company is also facing greater inventory pressure, it has made "winning in China" one of its eight strategic plans from 2011 to 2015

by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period, the sales scale of China's construction machinery industry will reach 900billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of about 17%. Compared with the average growth rate of 27.5% in the past five years and 23.8% in the past 10 years, with the continuous growth of the overall scale of the industry in the future, the growth rate will gradually fall, and the industry will enter steady growth in the medium and long term

in addition, the oligopoly pattern of domestic construction machinery is becoming more and more obvious. For example, in the total market value of 19.5 billion yuan, the market value of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion Heavy industry reached 138.7 billion yuan, accounting for 70%

it is worth mentioning that with the internationalization of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion Heavy Industry, the product quality and brand awareness are constantly improving, and the substantial improvement of competitiveness has also recaptured many domestic market shares. For example, data from Gaohua securities shows that among all major construction machinery categories, excavators are the only market still dominated by foreign brands, but in recent years, the growth of local manufacturers has caught up rapidly, and the overall development of products and dealers has promoted the share of local manufacturers from 23% in 2006 to 40% in 2011

in the short term, the main hidden worry of construction machinery is the high cash pressure. Haitong Securities Research believes that due to the early leveraged overdraft sales, accounts receivable once increased rapidly in, and the average operating cash flow of the domestic construction machinery industry has been negative since 2011, resulting in a cash tight situation in the industry. The ratio of industry accounts receivable to operating income has exceeded 200. Therefore, it is not only companies from the UK that can use this kind of ability to produce coal, copper, iron, zinc and other minerals in their own development projects. The five-year financial distress and the historical high at the end of 2008 financial crisis

rapid growth of concrete machinery

since this year, although the net profit of major listed companies in the construction machinery sector has fallen by more than 25% on average, Zoomlion has increased by 21.5% year-on-year, of which the profit of concrete machinery has made a huge contribution

in the first half of the year, the concrete machinery market was strong and the excavator market was weak. The revenue of concrete machinery, which accounts for 58% of Zoomlion's revenue, increased by 52%, supporting the company's performance growth

concrete machinery mainly includes concrete pump trucks, concrete pumps (trailer pumps, truck mounted pumps), concrete mixing plants, concrete mixer trucks and distribution rods. It is widely used in the middle and late stages of engineering construction, and is less affected by the slowdown in the growth rate of new construction in the short term. According to the data of 2011, the proportion of pump trucks and mixer trucks in the sector is large, accounting for 57%

probably, the sales volume of pump trucks and mixer trucks (domestic + export) in 2012 will be basically the same as that in 2011, or even achieve positive growth. Gaohua securities also judged that the construction machinery and equipment industry in the third quarter is expected to recover slowly from the low base in the second half of last year. The gradual relaxation of policies will promote infrastructure investment, but at the same time, real estate investment will continue to be weak. Among various products, concrete machinery is the most promising, because the penetration rate of ready mixed concrete in small and medium-sized cities will be increasing

in its "industry growth is slowing down, and we must wait for the policy to recover", it is mentioned that concrete machinery experienced three factors: the increase in the proportion of commercial concrete in the first half of the year, the replacement of short cars by long cars, and the sinking of demand to third and fourth tier cities. The growth in the second half of the year lacks new impetus, so it is expected that the growth rate will also slow down, and it is expected to maintain a slight increase throughout the year

at present, the domestic concrete industry has formed a duopoly pattern, in which Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion occupy more than 90% of the concrete pump truck share. UBS Securities judged that there would be no substantial improvement in excavator sales in the second half of 2012, and concrete machinery would hover at a high level. Although it would further penetrate into third and fourth tier cities, the penetration space was limited

caterpillar has stopped its excavator capacity expansion plan in China. When looking forward to the second half of this year, caterpillar plans to continue to adopt a moderately cautious production reduction and inventory reduction strategy in China's construction machinery market, and is expected to gradually reduce inventory to an appropriate level within the year. However, measures will also be taken to deal with the sudden reversal of the boom in China's construction machinery industry. Caterpillar predicted in its semi annual report that the Chinese government's steady growth measures are expected to rebound the growth rate of the construction machinery industry at the end of 2012 and 2013

in the long run, industrial securities predicts that the average annual compound growth rate of domestic market sales of pump trucks and mixer trucks from 2012 to 2015 will be about 6% and 8% respectively, and the gross profit rate of the industry can still be maintained, and the growth rate of domestic sales revenue will be basically the same as that of sales. In addition, the system can handle up to four different belt materials in one production run. With the enhancement of the international competitiveness of local concrete machinery products (especially pump trucks and mixer trucks), the expansion of overseas production bases, sales and service networks of leading enterprises, and the continuation of overseas purchase tide, export sales and revenue are expected to grow steadily

in addition, from the valuation of Sany, Zoomlion and caterpillar, they are 8.7 times, 8.3 times and 10 times respectively

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI